Cyclone Nargis wrecks havoc in Myanmar (Burma)

Well, unless you completely isolate yourself from all sources of news in the last few days, you would have heard about the devastating affects of Cyclone Nargis through much of Myanmar on Sunday.  The latest numbers have    22 000 dead and hundreds of thousands homeless & lacking clean water.  These numbers may increase significantly as remote areas are being reached.  For a good overview of the situation, read this article: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/7385662.stm, and log on BBC everyonce in a while for updates.  Anyway, I just wanted to share some thoughts regarding this dire situation. As many of you know, Myanmar is a country which I hold close to my heart.





1. Above all, this is a disasterous situation.  Tens of thousands are dead, hundreds of thousands are living in desperation.  Infrastrcture, which was already minimal, has been destroyed.  Health services, which are already the worst in the world, can not deal with the aftermath from the storm.

2. Unsurpsingly, the military junta is not doing a whole lot to respond to this situation.  Could this lead to more protests against the government (à la September 2007)???

3. The junta wants to go ahead with the referrendum scheduled for may 10.  Does anyone else think that's a bit strange?

4. This could NOT have come at worse time.  With the US (and thus global) economy on the brink of collapse, and oil / grain / staples prices at painful highs, now is not the best time for donating huge sums of money.  For instance, the US has a deficit larger than the GDPs than many countries.  Even in Burma, before the cyclone more and more people were having difficulty buying rice and other staples.  Now - its exponentially worse.

5. Does anyone else think that the international reaction has been a bit disappointing?  The US has given 250 000$??  That's like the avg salary of ONE senator.  Other western countries have given a similar amount.  Of course, you can't entirely blame them.... since Myanmar has isolated itself from the West, and the government has even been giving aid workers a hard time getting into the country.

6.  Thanks for those of you who expressed concern, but fortunately for me, most of my students should still be in Mae Sot, Thailand, which was just missed by the cyclone.



If you consult that map, Mae Sot  is more or less parallel to Rangoon, on the Thai side of the border.  However, Rangoon was hit very hard, and it is the largest city in Myanmar with a population in the millions.  It is also likely that the families of some of my students may have been affected.  Unfortunately, I haven't heard back from any of my students since the cyclone happened, but I don't think we need to be worried about the people in Thailand.

7. Not to diminish the fact that this is a horrible situation, but perhaps we can see some good in it.  First of all, like the Sept '07 protests, it puts Myanmar back in the front of people's minds.  Second of all, the incomptence of the military junta to take care of its people may lead to protests - maybe even stronger than the most recent protests.  Third of all, and perhaps most importantly, the government is finally letting Western aid agencies into the country.  As far as I know, this may be the largest international / Western precence in Burma in decades- but does that mean anything?


To conclude, we cannot overemphasise the disasterous implications of this event.  It is a catastrophe, and we must not forget the countless individuals killed or with ruined lives.  However, if you look at history, catastrophic events tend to cause major revolutions/ changes.  Look at the Bubonic plague in Europe, the Second World War, the attacks of Sept 11 in the US, to name a few.  The massive nature of this storm, combined with very precarious timing (massive protests still on most Burmese people's minds; referendum due in just a couple of days!; let's not forget the role of China, whose olympics are starting in just a few months, world economy is on the brinks of severe recession), may lead to something drastic.  I'm not necessarily prophesising the overthrow of the military junta, but I would not at all be surprised to see a new set of massive protests, that may have a greater impact than the more recent ones.  At the very least, Myanmar will be a country to follow quite closely over the next few weeks.